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Scotland isn’t traditional territory for the Conservatives. That is what we will do. 5 Those who are subject to a legal incapacity to vote . What makes elections in Scotland particularly nail-biting is the large proportion of marginal seats. The report noted that it would take £450 million to set up an independent state, with an initial budget deficit of around 6% of GDP. This election, Chamberlain is banking on her party carving out a niche – attracting voters who want to stay in the EU, but don’t want a second referendum on Scottish independence. Edward believed "Scotland makes quite a good fit with Iceland and Norway", referring to the European Economic Area and the European Free Trade Association, while Scott hinted that Scotland could be a successor state, meaning the rest of the UK would leave but Scotland would retain its seat. The 2017 UK general election returned a hung parliament resulting in Theresa May's Conservatives returning as a minority government through a pact with the Democratic Unionist Party. With many seats in Scotland resting on razor-thin margins, this will be the scene of a fierce battle that could have major consequences for the future of the UK. We will oppose UK withdrawal from the EU and will propose that, in any future referendum, there should be a double majority requirement. ... Tue 15 Oct 2019 02.00 EDT. LONDON (Reuters) - Scottish leader Nicola Sturgeon said an independence referendum that could wrench apart the United Kingdom after Brexit should take place in the earlier part of the devolved parliament’s next term, which begins next year.. Jeremy Corbyn was once a radical outsider. Scottish independence (Scottish Gaelic: Neo-eisimeileachd na h-Alba; Scots: Scots unthirldom) is the political movement for Scotland to become a sovereign state, independent from the United Kingdom.. Scotland was an independent kingdom through the Middle Ages, having won wars of independence against England.The two kingdoms were joined in personal union in 1603 when the Scottish King … This is counter to the voting franchise in the 2014 referendum which was limited to British, Irish, Commonwealth and European Union citizens resident in Scotland over the age of 16.[79]. 1 Power to provide for referendums . Critics meanwhile, have labelled the SNP blueprint“incoherent.”. [46], A Survation poll the day prior to the election found that 71% of 2014 independence voters planned to vote for the SNP,[47] significantly lower than the 87% of 'Yes' voters who were planning to vote SNP at a comparable time in 2015. [90], Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said: "[be] very clear Scotland does not have the competence to negotiate with the European Union". In the last election here in 2017 Gethins won by just two votes, following three recounts, and admits “there was quite a lot of stuff going on at the time” given his wife had just had their baby the week before. [13][14] The proposed UK referendum on EU membership had already been announced, and was a topic of discussion in the independence debate. If there was another referendum and if Scots voted out, it would mark the biggest shock to the United Kingdom since Irish independence a century ago - just as London … [97], With the United Kingdom leaving the European Union and previously having an opt-out of the Schengen Area, an independent Scotland, if acceded into the European Union, would be required to negotiate an opt-out of the Schengen Area to continue to form part of the Common Travel Area (CTA) alongside Ireland and the United Kingdom. [40][41] Prior to the passage of the motion, a Green Party amendment was passed, by the same margin, that seeks to enable 16 and 17 year-olds and EU citizens the opportunity to vote in a referendum.[42]. Section . No battle will be fiercer than that fought in the constituency of North East Fife. Regulations 2016, The European Union Referendum (Conduct) Regulations 2016, European Communities Act 1972 (Repeal) Bills, Terms of Withdrawal from EU (Referendum) Bills, UK Withdrawal from the European Union (Legal Continuity) (Scotland) Bill 2018, European Union Withdrawal Agreement (Public Vote) Bill 2017–19, Trade negotiation between the UK and the EU, Post-Brexit United Kingdom relations with the European Union,, Consequences of the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, Articles with dead external links from May 2020, Articles with permanently dead external links, Pages using citations with accessdate and no URL, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. He has stated that Scotland should seek a new devolution settlement rather than becoming an independent country. The Scottish Independence Referendum Act 2013 set out the arrangements for the referendum and was passed by the Scottish Parliament in November 2013, following an agreement between the devolved Scottish government and the Government of the United Kingdom. [104][105] This position was criticised by think tank Common Weal who propose that Scotland should adopt a new currency as close to day 1 of independence as a means to have full fiscal and monetary sovereignty.[106]. Of course, there’s no guarantee that an independent Scotland would automatically be welcomed back into the EU. If there was another referendum and if Scots voted out, it would mark the biggest shock to the United Kingdom since Irish independence a … The independence proposal required a simple majority to pass. Each of the four constituent nations of the UK would have to vote for withdrawal before the UK as a whole could leave the European Union. [7], On 28 March 2017, the Scottish Parliament voted 69–59 on Motion S5M-04710, in favour of holding a second referendum on Scottish independence. [5], On 16 March 2017, ahead of the scheduled debate, Theresa May responded by broadcasting a message where she said that "now is not the time" for a second referendum on Scottish independence, as it would be unclear what the people of Scotland would be voting for. [131] This trend continued into January 2020, when three polls put "Yes" support at between 50% and 52% (excluding undecideds). Scotland rejected independence at a 2014 referendum, 55% to 45%. But circumstances have changed dramatically since then, according to the Scottish National Party (SNP) -- the third-largest party in the UK Parliament. The SNP held the position of the third-largest party in the House of Commons, gaining 13 seats from the previous election to a total of 48. This Act extends voting rights to anyone legally resident in Scotland over the age of 16, regardless of nationality or citizenship, and extends voting rights to some prisoners if they have less than 12 months to serve in prison. “So students have a real opportunity this year to potentially swing the result of the whole election.”. The party specified that their preferred method of showing support for a referendum was via a public petition, although their manifesto didn't clarify how many signatories there would have to be to receive their support:[27]. Despite not having a separate currency on independence, the report suggested that Scotland would set up a central bank to act as a lender of last resort. Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon wants to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence next year, she told the British daily The Times on Friday, a few months before the local elections in May 2021. The current Scottish Government intends to seek a Section 30 order or an amendment to the Scotland Act 1998 to ensure that the result of a future referendum can be indisputably binding. , are adamant about the direction they want that swing to take. [124], Scottish Liberal Democrats leader Willie Rennie said in March 2017, "We stood on a platform last May where we said we were against independence and against another independence referendum",[125] he also said, "No independence referendum, either at Westminster or in the Scottish Parliament – that's the view of the Liberal Democrats. Before the referendum, leading figures with a range of opinions regarding Scottish independence suggested that in the event the UK as a whole voted to leave the EU but Scotland as a whole voted to remain, a second independence referendum might be precipitated. Students loom large here; cycling down pretty streets and teeming out of grand stone university buildings. [4], First Minister Nicola Sturgeon gained approval of the Scottish Parliament to seek a Section 30 order under the Scotland Act 1998 to hold an independence referendum "when the shape of the UK's Brexit deal will become clear". This time the head of devolved government of Scotland and leader of SNP Nichlos Surgeon told supporters at virtual conference on Saturday that prospects of winning independence […] Uncertainty over Scotland's European Union (EU) membership was a topic in the run-up to the referendum vote. Professor John Curtice stated in January 2012 that polling had shown support for independence at between 32% and 38% of the Scottish population. [39], On 13 March 2017, Nicola Sturgeon announced she would seek Scottish Parliament approval to negotiate with the UK Government for a Section 30 order enabling a legally binding second independence referendum. [20] The UK government had also portrayed the independence referendum as once-in-a-generation. [58], The SNP garnered 45% of the popular vote in Scotland, an 8% gain from the 2017 UK general election. He has said; "We will not support another independence referendum for a generation." In the event of a hung parliament –- one in which no party secures an outright majority -- the pro-independence SNP could play kingmaker, potentially propping up a Labour government (they’ve dismissed the idea of doing the same with the Conservatives). The party lost the first one by a margin of 6 percent. [60] Given Johnson's opposition to a second referendum, Sturgeon stated the Scottish Government could pursue a legal course of action to try to give the Scottish Parliament the power to call a referendum. [16][17], The Scottish Government's official publication on the independence referendum stated that "It is the view of the current Scottish Government that a referendum is a once-in-a-generation opportunity",[18] a point reiterated a few days before the vote by the SNP's then-leader, Alex Salmond, noting the eighteen-year gap between the devolution referenda held in 1979 and in 1997 as an example of the generational opportunity. Chamberlain’s biggest challenge may simply be convincing voters in her own home. Like his young supporters, he opts for a tall glass of water over anything stronger. Holding a second Scottish independence referendum in 2021 might be clever politics, exploiting Boris Johnson's unpopularity in Scotland, but the … The SNP’s key condition for this would be securing a second Scottish independence referendum. In any case, “we won’t be in the EU come January,” says Stage, in between sips of tea. [33][36], Scottish Secretary David Mundell stated, on 26 June 2016, that "if the people of Scotland ultimately determine that they want to have another [independence] referendum there will be one", and added "Could there be another referendum? My starting point is to protect our relationship with the EU. Franchise . At the heart of North East Fife is the university town of St Andrews. Many opinion polls were conducted about Scottish independence before the referendum and then during the campaign. Happy to discuss w. @NicolaSturgeon next time she's in Bxl. Uncertainty over Scotland's European Union (EU) membership was a topic in the run-up to the referendum vote. Scottish leader Nicola Sturgeon on Thursday warned the United Kingdom that she wants the second referendum "in the earlier part" of the next Scottish parliament, which begins next year. Only a Labour government would grant a Scottish referendum. Ahead of that referendum, the Scottish Government stated in its white paper proposing independence that voting Yes was a "once in a generation opportunity to follow a different path, and choose a new and better direction for our nation". Hauling lobsters onto his family’s boat in St Andrews’ harbor, Gardner stands on the cliff edge. [86] Similarly, the French President, François Hollande, stated: "The negotiations will be conducted with the United Kingdom, not with a part of the United Kingdom". As the United Kingdom faces its most momentous election in recent history, Scotland is grappling with which view to set its sights on. Undeterred, tourists swaddled in puffer jackets and armed with selfie sticks ascend the cathedral tower that has overlooked this coastal spot for 800 years. 6 Provision about voting etc. [35] Sturgeon said it was "democratically unacceptable" that Scotland could be taken out of the EU "against its will". There was an extremely high turnout and there was a resounding result in favour of Scotland remaining in the UK. [85] She raised the possibility of parts of the UK remaining within the EU, or for these areas to have special arrangements with the EU, after the UK leaves. He has relatives in both countries and says he doesn’t want to cross a hard border “just to see my family.” Â. A handful of the group were too young to vote in the 2016 EU referendum. SP Bill 46 Session 5 (2019) Referendums (Scotland) Bill [AS INTRODUCED] CONTENTS. Scotland has the same population as Denmark, with much the same resources, infrastructure and talent. Scottish leader Nicola Sturgeon said an independence referendum that could wrench apart the United Kingdom after Brexit should take place in the earlier part of the devolved parliament's next term, which begins next year. [59][61], Nicola Sturgeon's request for a referendum was rejected by the UK government in January 2020. The SNP's 2019 General Election manifesto stated that the party intended to hold a second referendum in 2020; it won 48 of Scotland’s 59 seats. [118], Former Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn said in March 2017 that a referendum would be "absolutely fine" and that "I don't think it's the job of Westminster or the Labour Party to prevent people holding referenda."  Experts say that’s largely down to a four-party system not seen in England. [82][83] On 28 June 2016, Sturgeon said that "independence [...] is not my starting point in these discussions. “So, what do we have to lose?”. Sea on one side, hills on the other, constantly moving between the two. However, it affirmed that Scotland's independence would have to be accepted by the United Kingdom for Scotland to obtain EU membership: "There now seems to be a consensus that, were Scotland to become independent by legal means, it could join the [European] Union". Meanwhile, kilt shop owner Robert Brown says he’ll be backing the Conservatives because they “support small businesses” like his. [43] In response she said that that, "I don't think it's right for any politician to dictate to a country what its future should be. [12] The British government and some mainstream political parties argued that remaining in the UK was the only way for Scotland to remain part of the EU. In another pub down the road, the SNP incumbent in this constituency, Stephen Gethins, rearranges himself on a plush red barstool. [130], "No" continued to show a lead in opinion polls until July 2019, when one poll by Lord Ashcroft showed a narrow majority for "Yes". ", "How would you vote in a Scottish independence referendum if held now? This had fallen somewhat since the SNP were first elected to become the Scottish Government in 2007. The nitty-gritty of what an independent Scotland would actually look like – its currency and border controls --- are all laid out in the SNP’s 650-page White Paper, he says. [131] Professor John Curtice said after this poll was released that there had recently been a swing towards "Yes", and that this was concentrated among people who had voted to "Remain" in the 2016 Brexit referendum.  with those who favor remaining part of the union. Some, like the university’spro-independence union, are adamant about the direction they want that swing to take. [117], In November 2019 during the lead up to the UK general election, leader of the Conservatives and Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated that a Conservative government would not permit a second independence referendum, vowing to "protect our magnificent union". [47] The Conservatives became the largest anti-independence party increasing their votes from 27% to 46% of unionist voters. [86], The Scottish European and External Affairs Committee held an evidence session on 30 June 2016, asking a panel of four experts (Dr Kirsty Hughes of Friends of Europe, Prof Sionaidh Douglas-Scott of the Queen Mary School of Law at the University of London, Sir David Edward and Prof Drew Scott of the University of Edinburgh) what they felt was the best way to secure the Scottish-EU relationship. I believe the answer to that question is no. [19] Three months later, Salmond reversed the position, highlighting the UK's EU referendum as a factor. [107] Scotland's GDP remains at 17.6% lower than in February 2020 despite small levels of growth since the easing of lockdown restrictions. Indeed, the St Andrews students said the Scottish independence movement as a whole had been “very supportive” of Catalan activists, flying their flags at rallies and vice versa. [128] During the period of 18 September 2015 to 18 September 2016 a further twenty-four opinion polls were conducted, of which twenty had "No" as the predominant answer while four had "Yes" as the predominant answer. But how? The SNP went on to win 56 of the 59 Scottish seats that were contested in an unprecedented landslide winning 50% of the national vote and left just three unionist MPs in Scotland; Labour saw their worst result in Scotland since 1918, the Liberal Democrats fell to their lowest level since 1970 and the Conservatives received their lowest vote share in Scotland since 1865. From the top, gazing in one direction, the sea stretches towards Europe. [44] Opposition to a second referendum is one of the issues that former SNP MP Angus Robertson and Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson have attributed to reduced support for the SNP. Glasgow North East was gained by Labour despite consisting mostly of the two Scottish Parliamentary constituencies with the largest support for independence within the Glasgow City council area – Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn and Glasgow Provan. [66], Support for independence reached record levels during 2020. "[120], A spokesperson speaking on behalf of Cameron's successor as Conservative Party Leader and Prime Minister, Theresa May, said in October 2016: "The prime minister and the government does not believe that there is a mandate for [a second referendum]. In April 2019, Sturgeon proposed holding a second referendum before the end of the Scottish Parliamentary session in May 2021. Scottish leader Nicola Sturgeon said an independence referendum that could wrench apart the United Kingdom after Brexit should take place … The SNP remained as the third-largest party in the UK House of Commons with its representation reduced to 35 of the total 59 Scottish MPs. This was refuted by the United Kingdom Government and opposition parties as a policy that no party would support in government. [112][113], The Scottish Independence Convention backs calls for a referendum. [114][115], Alison Evison, President of the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities (COSLA) and Scottish Labour councillor for Aberdeenshire has stated her support for a referendum on independence, stating "We can strengthen it [democracy] by enabling the voice of Scotland to be heard through its formal processes and that must mean a referendum on independence"[116], Former First Minister Alex Salmond has shown support for a further independence referendum, claiming it is inevitable but only after what he predicts will be the ‘humiliation’ of Brexit becomes apparent for a clear choice to be made. [26], The Green manifesto stipulated that a second referendum should be held if there was a public demand for one, rather than as a result of "calculations of party political advantage". “You couldn’t do it in the Thames (in London) because it’s too much of a threat to human life,” says Stage. Scotland would only consider an independent currency, once certain economic goals had been met. [5][6] No Prime Minister of the United Kingdom has approved the transfer of power for another independence referendum under Section 30,[7][8][9][10] and current Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said he will not sanction it while he is in office. Even in a close constituency like North East Fife, some voters are still backing outside parties. Across the United Kingdom, the Conservatives led by David Cameron won an unexpected overall majority, their first since 1992 and following their victory passed the European Union Referendum Act 2015 which legislated for the holding of a national UK-wide referendum on EU membership which would be held following the conclusion of a renegotiation of the UK's membership to the EU. According to the Growth Commission, Scotland would seek an open migration policy to allow for its population to grow. But if it was in power, most SNP arguments would be pointless. [15], Other issues, such as the economy, played a large part in the debate. Some, like 26-year-old fisherman Lee Gardner, still aren’t sure who they’ll vote for. However, the currency would not be adopted until several key economic tests were satisfied, and until then an SNP government would have a policy of Sterlingisation of the Scottish economy and state. He has stated that 40 years is what he sees as the time needed between referenda. [122], Scottish Labour leader Richard Leonard is against an independence referendum. [47][48], Following the 2017 UK general election, Sturgeon announced that the Scottish Government would postpone legislation on the proposed second referendum on Scottish independence until at least autumn 2018 when it was believed that the outcome of Brexit negotiations would become clearer. [52] First Minister Sturgeon also announced the establishment of a 'Social Justice Commission' to develop the social argument for independence to complement the SNP's new economic policy.[53]. St Andrews, Scotland --It’s a bitterly cold November day in the Scottish town of St Andrews, the kind of morning when the grass crackles underfoot like broken glass. Most of Brown’s customers come from Scotland or America, where he says kilts are a popular choice for weddings. In May 2019, the Scottish Government introduced the Referendums (Scotland) Bill to the Scottish Parliament. [31], A report for the European Parliament regarding the impact on the United Kingdom's exit from the EU on devolution suggested that "there now seems to be a consensus that, were Scotland to become independent by legal means, it could join the [European] Union", something which had been questioned before the 2014 referendum. [22], The 2015 UK general election was held on 7 May almost eight months after the independence referendum was held. [62] In his official response, Boris Johnson wrote that Sturgeon and Salmond had promised that the 2014 referendum would be a "once in a generation" vote, that both the Scottish and UK governments had pledged to implement the outcome of that vote, and that his government "cannot agree to any request for a transfer of power that would lead to further independence referendums". The SNP believes an independent Scotland is the best way of staying in the EU; the Lib Dems say Scotland is stronger in Europeand in the UK. In 2015, Labour had the highest vote share among unionist voters at 42%. Sturgeon said the UK government's current opposition to the independence referendum, indyref2, that could wrench it apart after Brexit, was ''unsustainable''. But the “bottom line,” according to Miklinksi, is that a Conservative majority is the only way to resolve the “logjam in Westminster” and deliver Brexit. [10], The 2019 UK general election resulted in a majority parliament for the Conservatives led by Boris Johnson. Her husband is an SNP member, though she’s quick to laugh off politically-induced marital strife. The town’s prestigious university also has a reputation, Scottish commentators told CNN, as the place where wealthy English and American students go when they don’t get into Oxford or Cambridge. [50], Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson responded to the report by saying: "For me, the most important issue is making sure our children get a good education. Both are English, which they say “lends itself to unionism a little bit.”. Scotland’s first minister and the leader of the SNP, Nicola Sturgeon, has said scrapping Trident would be one of her party’s key demands if Labour wanted its support in a minority government. 2 Application of this Act . Soon, Scotland will decide which way to turn. Even those who did vote Remain feel they’ve been flung under a Brexit bus that is beyond their control. The referendum on Scottish independence held on 18 September 2014 saw Scotland vote to remain part of the United Kingdom (UK), with 55% voting against the proposal for Scotland to become an independent country and 45% voting in favour. The report, additionally, suggested that an independent Scotland would negotiate a share of the UK national debt, while continuing to use the Pound Sterling as currency for at least a decade. If Scotland were to join the EU, this could also cause a customs border to form due to the United Kingdom leaving the EU. [129] From 18 September 2016 to 18 September 2017 twenty-six polls were conducted with twenty-five returning "No" as the most popular answer and only one returning "Yes" as the most popular answer. I think that should be a choice for the people of Scotland. They gather outside cafes handing out political flyers, all too aware that in a constituency where just two votes decided the winner last time around, they could make all the difference. In 2013, Scotland exported around three and a half times more to the rest of the UK than to the rest of the EU,[109] while in 2015, that had increased to around four times more to the rest of the UK than to the rest of the EU. This includes Scottish Parliamentary elections, local authority elections and referenda under the Scottish Parliament's remit. [91], The new UK Prime Minister Theresa May met with Sturgeon on 15 July 2016 in Edinburgh, when May stated that she was "willing to listen to options" for Scotland,[92] although she later stated that some options were "impracticable". She believes the same argument for staying in the EU, applies to staying in the UK. This Act forms the statutory basis for all future referenda being held under Scots Law under the instruction of the Scottish Government. However, a spokesman for Corbyn later said: "Labour continues to oppose a further referendum in the Scottish Parliament and would campaign against independence if one were held. Experts have warned that Spain – which is facing its own Catalan independence movement – may veto any attempt by Scotland to rejoin the bloc. There was one only two years ago. That said, the polls predicted the same outcome in the 2017 election – instead, the Tories failed to achieve that majority. Up to the minute results of the 2019 General Election in Scotland from BBC News

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